New York’s Wuhan cases by the numbers

New York’s Wuhan cases by the numbers

New York’s Wuhan cases are monstrous, you guys.

This morning I decided to do a deep dive into those numbers just to get a fuller picture of what’s happening here in my state.

It’s taken me hours, and I had to do math (and I hate math), but here’s what I’ve put together.

As of April 3, the New York State Department of Health reported that of the 283,621 New Yorkers tested for Wuhan virus thus far, there are 113,704 positive cases.  Of those, 3,565 have died.

By comparison, according to the COVID-19 tracker at the Epoch Times, the total number of cases in the United States (as of now) is 293,142 (7,885 have died).

In other words, New York State alone accounts for 38.78% of all Wuhan cases in the US, and a shocking 45.21% of the total US deaths.

New York’s total population is 19,440,469.  Which puts its infection rate by total population at 0.58%.

As a New York state resident, I was curious how many of those 113,704 Wuhan cases reside in my county.

So I just checked the New York State Department of Health’s COVID-19 statewide tracker which lists the state’s county-by-county cases.

As of April 3, Onondaga County reported 262 cases of Wuhan virus out of 4,032 people tested for an infection rate of 6.5% of those tested (but only 0.06% of total population).  Three people have died.

As you can see from the NYS Dept of Health map above, the bulk of the Wuhan cases in New York State are clustered in the nine counties in and around New York City.  That’s hardly surprising as 64% of New York’s population rests in those nine counties.

These nine counties for which the NYS Dept. of Health had to add a second, close-up map to see:

Downstate 9 wuhan cases

Here is a breakdown of the Wuhan cases from those nine hardest-hit counties as of April 3 (from highest to lowest):

Queens – 20,114 (56.8% of those tested)
Kings – 17,504 (52.1% of those tested)
Nassau — 13,356 (45% of those tested)
Westchester – 13,081 (30.9% of those tested)
Bronx – 12,315 (51.4% of those tested)
Suffolk — 11,370 (42.9% of those tested)
Manhattan (NY County) – 9,300 (40.9% of those tested)
Rockland – 4,872 (43.4% of those tested)
Richmond — 4,073 (45.5% of those tested)

[Side note: Look at that map above. Notice how cagey the NYS Dept. of Health is. Of the counties that they list as “1,000+,” six of them in reality are “10,000+.”]

So of the number of Wuhan cases in New York (113,704), the total number in those nine counties alone is 96,685.  In other words, New York State accounts for 38.78% of the total cases in the US.  But these nine counties alone account for 85% of the total cases in the state of New York.

64% percent of the state’s population, but 85% of the state’s Wuhan cases.

It’s really staggering.

When you factor in population, the downstate counties infection rates by total population are (from highest to lowest):

Rockland – 1.49%
Westchester – 1.35%
Nassau – 0.98%
Queens – 0.88%
Richmond – 0.85%
Bronx – 0.85%
Suffolk – 0.76%
Kings – 0.67%
Manhattan (NY County) – 0.57%

A couple things to note:

In New York, Rockland County is the 13th highest in population.  Among those nine hot-spots, it has the smallest population (325,695). And yet it has the highest rate of infection by total population (1.49%). That’s odd.

Seven of these nine counties are the most populous counties in New York State.

Just to put that into perspective: the 8th most populous county in New York State is Erie County (919,719 people/largest city Buffalo).  Erie has 808 cases of COVID-19 (22.9% infection rate of those tested).  And the rate of infection by total population in Erie County is only 0.09%.  Whereas Westchester, the seventh most populous county in New York (967,612), has a total infection rate of 1.35% by population.

Now, if you add together the populations of the nine downstate counties, the cumulative infection rate by that total population is 0.77%.

The rest of the state combined (minus those nine counties) has a 0.25% rate of infection by total population.

It just floors me how badly downstate New York is getting hammered.

I’m sure there are a lot of theories as to why this is the case – population density, reliance on mass transit, frequent travel between these hot-spots, number of foreign travelers (or all of the above).

But what I take away from this is President Trump was right to consider quarantining downstate New York.

It isn’t out of dislike or disdain for downstate New York that makes me say that; it’s the numbers.

You cannot look at those numbers and not conclude that A) Downstate New York is the epicenter of this pandemic in the US and B) travel outside of those counties should absolutely be restricted.

It’s no wonder Rhode Island wanted to ban travel from New York.  Can you blame them? Rhode Island has only 711 Wuhan cases (0.06% of the total population of the state). Maybe they’d like to keep it that way.

It’s stunning to me that my idiot Governor Slime Ball Cuomo threatened to sue any state that prevented New Yorkers from entering.  He’s keeping everyone in this state holed up in their homes unable to work.  State leaders are urging citizens to call the police on anyone who isn’t following the shutdown order.  For crying out loud, Cuomo sent the National Guard to quarantine New Rochelle in Westchester County! Yet when another state wants a little social distancing from New Yorkers, Andrew pitches a fit and threatens to sue.

Look at the numbers for crap’s sake!

I don’t blame any state who wants to keep New Yorkers out.  I wish we could bar travel into Onondaga County from these hotbed counties if you want to know the truth.

And like I said yesterday, hindsight is 20/20.  Had we known early enough that the NYC area was going to be this bad, we should’ve shut down travel to and from that area immediately.  Maybe if we had, the numbers would be lower for not only the rest of New York, but the rest of the country as well.

Don’t ever make me do that much math on a Saturday ever again.

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11 thoughts on “New York’s Wuhan cases by the numbers

  • April 4, 2020 at 5:13 pm
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    Capital J journalism right there folks.
    Nice work.

  • April 4, 2020 at 6:17 pm
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    You even used old math to do it! Great work! And yes, NYC needs to be cordoned off.

  • April 4, 2020 at 6:18 pm
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    Hey, you stay safe up there. I’m in Texas so I guess most everybody is considered “up there”. Just a hopeful thought. You stay safe and sound. Next time ask one of us to do the math.

  • April 4, 2020 at 6:52 pm
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    Another element not being reported is the number of “active” cases. Of the 114,000 reported cases in NY, how many are still “active?” Those who tested positive on 10 March are more than likely completely recovered today and consequently are “inactive” cases. Furthermore, of the “active” cases, how many are being treated at home and how many others require hospitalization? And, of those being hospitalized, how many are being treated by drugs and how many others are on ventilators? The media and talking heads have made it seem that the high number of total cases (a number that by definition can only go up) is equivalent to death at the doorstep. But according to the medical professionals recovery, at least in broad terms, is about 98%, which means there should be many of the 114,000 NY cases that have already recovered and are no longer “active.” I don’t know why the data dogs aren’t hunting the “active” cases numbers, since “active” cases would give us a clear idea of when we’ve reached peak.

    • April 4, 2020 at 7:14 pm
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      The local info I found listed the number recovered as well as the number who died. Oddly, the state Dept of Health provides neither at their interactive site.

    • April 4, 2020 at 7:33 pm
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      interesting.
      nice angle.
      thanks

      • April 4, 2020 at 10:50 pm
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        Nice cypherin’ Dianny, and on a Saturday too!! We all still need to do our part safety wise. Let’s not forget, these numbers are our brothers & sister’s. Fellow Americans. God Bless them all, and prayers for us all.

  • April 5, 2020 at 11:09 am
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    For those of you interested: Here’s a link to the Johns Hopkins interactive map of the Covid-19 throughout the world. You can zoom in on any area and keep zooming to find particular hot spots. Go to the NY map and keep zooming in on each area of NY. Active cases are shown in numbers as well as the number of deaths attributed. However, I have not seen any “recovery” data for ANY place in any state like my my own here in AZ. They likely don’t know these data. Keep in mind also that the map only provides data for a COUNTY, not a city.
    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

  • April 6, 2020 at 9:59 am
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    Believe what you want but hundreds of nurses, coroner’s, morgue attendees and journalists have come out with eye witnesses on NY listing dead as Coronavirus. In a city of 9 to 12 million thousands die everyday of natural causes. Leftist Cuomo is pushing his leftists agenda.
    Don’t believe any of this bullshit. This is part of a world wide effort to get rid of Trump and push a one world government.
    The Coronavirus is no worse than any other flu bug.
    This farce is a big government dream come true. If you believe this crap your part of the problem.

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