This is just … well, sad. The latest MassINC polling has Pocahasbeen falling fifteen points since October in her home state.
How can the Massachusetts Senator be doing so badly in her home state of Massachusetts? That’s just wicked bad.
Didn’t they just reelect her fifteen months ago?
Now to be fair, the YouGov/UMass poll has Pocahasbeen just a couple points behind frontrunner Sanders.
You’d think even a mediocre candidate could count on home-field advantage.
Howard Dean was a disaster in 2004, yet he managed to win his home state of Vermont. Likewise, 2004 Democrat candidate John Edwards scored his home state of North Carolina.
In 2016, John Kasich, like Howard Dean before him, lost every state except his own.
Right now, Amy Klobuchar is leading the pack in her home state of Minnesota despite the fact that she is for all intents and purposes a bottom-tier candidate on the verge of dropping out.
Have the people of Massachusetts fallen out of love with their shrill schoolmarm Senator?
Not that this hasn’t happened before. In fact, Floridians tossed Senator Marco Rubio aside in favor of Donald Trump in 2016.
Now, that’s not to say Liz doesn’t have any chance of winning Massachusetts.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Super Tuesday election forecast does give Warren a 25% chance of winning the state she calls home. Of course, Bernie forecasts much better at 58%.
The rest of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast is grim for the former Cherokee. Her second-best odds for a win is Maine where Silver gives Warren an 8% chance of winning (he gives Bernie a 67% chance).
“But what about Warren’s birth state of Oklahoma?!” You might ask.
Well, Silver gives Liz a 3% chance of victory in the Sooner State on Tuesday. So clearly Pocahasbeen has zero home field advantage no matter how you measure “home field.”
A loss in Massachusetts next Tuesday would be just one more humiliation in a string of humiliations for Pocahasbeen.
Despite her best efforts, Liz packaging herself as the Frigid Spinster version of Bernie’s authoritarian Marxism just isn’t resonating.
That’s not to say she won’t come out of Super Tuesday with some delegates; she probably will – most notably in California (and even Massachusetts where she’ll probably come in second).
But at this rate, the odds of Pocahasbeen scoring one for the WIN column is looking less and less likely.
Even with all this grim news, I still stand by my previous statement that no matter how badly she does on Tuesday, Liz will refuse to drop out of the race.
Is she a masochist?
No. She’s a schemer.
I said before that Liz is the John Kasich of the 2020 Democrat race. Like Kasich before her, Pocahasbeen is clinging to the race in hopes of a contested convention.
So she’ll stay in even if she loses every contest — all on the outside chance she can steal the nomination from Bernie.
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