Oooof. New Hampshire.
Holy moly. I mean, I knew Biden and Warren were going to lose. But wow.
I said yesterday morning that Biden’s worst-case scenario was a fifth-place finish in New Hampshire.
And that’s exactly what he got.
Sure, he’s limped into South Carolina hoping for the best. But he’s done.
The shocker for me was Warren plummeting to fourth place and not even garnering ten percent of the vote.
For Warren, New Hampshire is the beginning of her own Trail of Tears.
In 2016, Jeb Bush came in fourth and he had 31,310 votes. With 96% reporting, Liz is just over 27K. That’s more than 30K votes behind third place finisher Amy Klobuchar. Jeb, on the other hand, was less than two thousand votes away from third-place finisher Ted Cruz.
To tell you the truth, I really did expect Warren to place third. I totally didn’t see Klobuchar beating her out by ten points.
Nonetheless, I stand by my assessment from yesterday. I still believe of the two of them, Joe Biden will exit the race before Liz Warren.
The most interesting thing about New Hampshire was the exit polling.
I mentioned several weeks ago that Liz Warren is the favored candidate of white suburban women. But in New Hampshire, that just wasn’t the case.
In exit polling from the Washington Post, the gender breakdown of New Hampshire was 42% men vs. 58% women. And how did Liz do among the “Persist! Girl Power! I am Woman!” voting bloc she so depended on? Yeah, she got a paltry 11%. Amy Klobuchar, on the other hand, garnered 23% of the girls – one point higher than Bernie and three points lower than Buttigieg.
And how did Liz do against Bernie’s primary base of support – those 18-29 year-olds? Bernie got the majority in that age group with 51%. Liz got 6%. Her best age group was the 30-44 year-olds. And even there, she only managed to get 13%.
At this point, I have no earthly idea what demographic Elizabeth Warren can claim as hers.
In every single breakdown of this Washington Post poll, the best Elizabeth Warren did was among those who identify as “very liberal.” And even there, she only captured 19% of them.
No matter how you slice it, Warren is heading out of New Hampshire badly wounded.
I don’t see how she regains any footing, if you want to know the truth.
Meanwhile, Amy Klobuchar is leaving New Hampshire with a definite shot in the arm. Her third place showing is going to give her a much-needed boost in Nevada and South Carolina. I also think she (along with Buttigieg) will benefit from Joe Biden’s humiliating New Hampshire face-plant.
The last RCP polling average for Nevada is from a month ago. And at that time, Klobuchar’s was at 3%. I imagine that will change after Amy’s third-place finish last night. The same may be true for South Carolina where Klobuchar’s RCP average (as of Feb 2) was a mere 2%.
I also think Klobuchar will see a boost among those women voters who desperately want to right the “wrong” of Hillary’s failure to make “herstory.” These were the gals Liz Warren was counting on. But I think there’s a good possibility that, after Klobuchar’s stunning New Hampshire finish, they’ll drop Warren like a hot rock and toss their support behind Amy.
And for some reason that’s the part about New Hampshire that has me chuckling.
Of all the Democrat women to enter the 2020 race, Amy Klobuchar is the only one who didn’t endlessly shriek about girl power. Kamala did it (she’s out). Kirsten did it (she’s out). Liz is still doing it. But the candidate who didn’t make her gender the central issue of her campaign is the one who gained the most support from women voters.
Interesting, isn’t it?
But the biggest news from New Hampshire last night was this:
That amount has changed by the way. With 96% reporting, Trump is currently, as of this writing, at 128,195 votes.
His margin of 85.5% topped Obama, Bush and Clinton as well. Only Ronald Reagan in 1984 received a higher percentage – just over 86%.
Any old how.
We’ll see what happens in Nevada and South Carolina.
Team Biden scampered out of New Hampshire before the polls even closed yesterday and rushed to the loving arms of South Carolina where he hopes voters there don’t take notice of his humiliating defeat in the Granite State.
New Hampshire trimmed the Democrat field by two (Yang and Bennet) with a third candidate mulling an exit as well (Deval Patrick).
Meanwhile Bloomberg is waiting in the wings.
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