Some thoughts on Super Tuesday

Some thoughts on Super Tuesday

I didn’t watch any election coverage last night — partly because I don’t have cable and partly because the thought of listening to news pundits pontificate for hours on end while the votes are counted is about as appealing as a colonoscopy.

And at least with a colonoscopy you get good drugs.

But I do have some thoughts on Super Tuesday I thought I’d share with you.

First off. I’ve written before about the Enthusiasm Gap between the Republican and Democrat contests. And last night, it is huge.

A quick jaunt over to Real Clear Politics and my hastily copying and pasting voting results for each of the Super Tuesday states, I came up with the total vote numbers for last night.

On the Democrat side, 5,824,165 votes were cast between Hillary and Bernie. Of those, 3,544,838 votes went to Hillary Clinton.

On the Republican side, 8,332,618 votes were cast. That is over 2.5 million — or 30% — more votes on the Republican side than the Democrat side. Of those Republican primary and caucus votes, 2,935,533 votes went to Donald Trump, 2,492,910 votes went to Ted Cruz and 1,871,743 votes went to Marco Rubio.

Ted Cruz received less than a half million votes fewer than Donald Trump. In fact, the two leading Republican candidates received nearly as many votes as the entire Democrat field (5,428,443).

Something else to consider. In the caucus states — Alaska and Minnesota — Donald Trump didn’t win. Also worth noting is the fact that of all the primary states that voted yesterday, only Oklahoma’s was a closed primary (meaning only those registered Republicans were permitted to vote). Cruz beat Trump by nearly six points in Oklahoma. This makes me wonder if, instead of the media or the GOP Establishment picking our nominee, this time around the Democrats are.

Of the eleven states, Trump won seven, Cruz won three and Rubio (FINALLY!) won one.

Rubio’s come-from-behind second place in Virginia didn’t surprise me in the least. What makes up a large portion of the Virginia voting bloc? Inside-the-beltway Republicans. Rubio is there guy. N’est ce pas?

And then there are the also-rans.

In a Super Tuesday where over 8.3 million people voted, Dr. Ben Carson couldn’t break half a million. He received a little over 490K votes. Kasich received just over 541K votes. His best showing was a fourth place finish in Texas with 120,155 votes (or ten percent of what Ted Cruz got in Texas).

Why the hell are Kasich and Carson still in this? I read Dr. Carson’s editorial at Fox News the other day arguing for why he remains in this race, and frankly I thought it was lame. If he really believes that voters should be the ones to decide whether or not he drop out, getting under six percent of all the 8.3 million votes pretty much tells me the voters have spoken.

And does Kasich really believe that winning Ohio on March 15 and gobbling up those 66 delegates makes him a force to be reckoned with? He seems to forget that Ohio is an open primary. And, if these past primaries are any indication, Democrats and Independents will once again do their best to turn out and vote for Trump in Ohio just as they did in South Carolina, Massachusetts, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Virginia, Vermont and Tennessee.

The truth is, I believe Rubio may have a better chance of winning Florida than Kasich has in winning Ohio if for no other reason than it is a closed primary (something Donald Trump has yet to win). The last poll done in Ohio was the February 23 Quinnipiac poll that showed Trump over Kasich by five points. Not that polls are always accurate. After all, the Sooner Poll from Monday, February 29 showed Trump winning Oklahoma (where Cruz beat Trump by just shy of 6 points) — beating Rubio by 13 points and Cruz by 16 points.

What you can’t deny is the Democrat Party is deeply unhappy with their choices in 2016 — which may explain why so many of them are using the open primary process to vote for the Democrat who happens to be running in the Republican race.

One final thought. As I mentioned a while back, Cruz and Rubio may need to seriously consider burying the hatchet and uniting in this race. At the time, I posited that if Cruz has a poor Super Tuesday, he may want to drop out and throw his support behind Rubio. However, that is not what happened. Cruz was not even a half million votes shy of the number of votes Trump received. He won three states to Rubio’s one state. Rubio dropping out and throwing his support behind Cruz would be the last chance we have to ensure an actual Republican win the Republican nomination.

Will Rubio do it?

As it stands now, it is doubtful. Rubio is holding out hope that he can secure a victory on March 15 in Florida where the 99 delegates are “winner take all.” The likelihood he would drop out before Florida is slim at best. A loss in his home state, however, may make the decision for him.

The only question is, will it be too late by then for a unified Cruz/Rubio ticket to stop a Trump nomination?

Bottom line is, I don’t see any of the five candidates dropping out post-Super Tuesday. Kasich will hang on for Ohio, Rubio will hang on for Florida and Carson will hang on because somebody keeps sending him money to run his Quixotic campaign.

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2 thoughts on “Some thoughts on Super Tuesday

  • March 2, 2016 at 3:25 pm

    Dr. Carson dropped out of the race today.

  • March 2, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    He will not be forgotten in a Cruz Administration!

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